With the Autumn Budget now scheduled for 28 October 2026, attention is increasingly turning to how the Government will balance its spending ambitions with its commitment to fiscal discipline at a time of elevated borrowing costs and economic uncertainty.

Andy Burnham has consistently outlined his approach, a vision that’s focused on regional growth, housing, public services and economic reform, but many tax policy details remain unclear and John Healey, Chancellor of the Exchequer, has remained tight-lipped, refusing to be drawn into pre-Budget speculation.

For individuals, families and business owners with significant assets, the months leading up to the Budget are likely to bring continued speculation around the taxation of wealth. While the Government has repeatedly indicated that it does not intend to increase the headline rates of Income Tax, National Insurance or VAT, commentators, tax specialists and economists continue to point towards other areas that could come under scrutiny. These include capital gains tax (CGT), inheritance tax (IHT), property taxation and reliefs available to business owners. Although none of these changes have been confirmed, and no early leaks have taken place, understanding the potential direction of travel can help ensure you are prepared for whatever announcements emerge next month.

What changes are expected?

Capital gains tax

One of the most widely discussed possibilities is further reform of capital gains tax, after the 2024 increases to 18% and 24% respectively. Burnham has previously argued that wealth and investment income are taxed more favourably than earned income, leading some to suggest that the Government could explore closer alignment between CGT and Income Tax rates. While there has been no formal announcement, CGT remains one of the areas most frequently highlighted ahead of the Budget.

Inheritance tax (IHT)

Inheritance tax is also likely return to the spotlight, after significant reform under previous Chancellor, Rachel Reeves. Burnham has previously discussed alternative approaches to the taxation of inherited wealth, explaining that this could support the funding of social care. More recently, there has been speculation around the future of existing IHT reliefs, particularly Agricultural Property Relief (APR) and Business Relief. Whether the Government pursues reform through rates, reliefs or a broader restructuring of the regime remains uncertain.

Although it is unlikely that Burnham will introduce a standalone “wealth tax”, given the pressure on public finances and the Labour Government's commitment not to increase certain mainstream taxes, Burnham has publicly acknowledged that wealthier individuals may need to contribute more. He has also previously made comments on rebalancing the taxation of work and wealth, which have led to ongoing discussion around how different forms of investment, property and inherited wealth may be taxed in the future. This is definitely an area many will be watching closely.

Property taxation

Property is another area where significant change has been discussed. The PM has been a long-standing critic of the current council tax and Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) system, arguing that it is “highly regressive” and can distort behaviour. Various proposals have been debated, including reforms to council tax bands, alternatives to SDLT and versions of a land value-based property tax. The Fairer Share proposal that has been discussed would tax a property’s overall value, with council tax and SDLT replaced by an annual charge of 0.48% of a home’s value, rising to 0.96% for second homes, empty homes, and homes owned by non-residents. These proposals carry a risk that higher annual ownership costs could make homeownership unaffordable for some, and could reduce the attractiveness of UK property as an investment asset for investors and non-residents.

What will this mean for those affected?

For individuals and families, the key challenge is uncertainty. Proposed changes could affect long-term retirement planning, estate planning, gifting strategies and decisions around the ownership and transfer of assets. Those with investment portfolios, multiple properties, family businesses or larger estates may wish to review existing arrangements to understand where they could be exposed if changes are announced.

Business owners may also face important considerations. Changes to capital gains tax, business reliefs or succession planning rules could influence future decisions around business sales, ownership transitions and investment strategies. For many entrepreneurs, preparation is likely to be more valuable than prediction.

Property owners, landlords and investors should also keep a close eye on developments. Even if wholesale reform does not materialise, targeted changes to property taxes, reliefs or valuation mechanisms could have implications for ownership costs, investment returns and future transactions.

What to do now

Periods of tax uncertainty often generate plenty of headlines but limited clarity. While it is generally unwise to make significant financial decisions based solely on speculation, the period before a Budget can be a sensible opportunity to review your affairs and identify areas where planning may be beneficial.

Our role is to help you cut through the speculation and understand what any announcements could mean in practice. The right approach will vary depending on your circumstances, but early review enables better decision-making once policy changes are announced. Our specialists can help you assess the potential implications of forthcoming changes and identify opportunities that may be available before and after the Autumn Budget.

As the detail emerges, we'll continue to provide practical analysis that goes beyond the headlines, helping you make informed decisions with confidence.